Reid's not done yet

I've been thinking of blogging for some time now, and a recent post to Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com inspired my first post.

The conventional wisdom on the national front seems to be that Reid's deficit in the polls is insurmountable. People are expecting a repeat of his leadership predecessor, Tom Daschle's, defeat to the then-popular governor of South Dakota, John Thune.

There is no doubt that Harry Reid has his work cut out for him. As Majority Leader, he has to balance a duel allegiance to his voting constituents here in Nevada, as well as the partisan forces which he has to lead.

But, there are advantages held by Harry Reid that are overlooked in the thirty-second soundbytes of mainstream media, as well as in the blogosphere. And, here they are:

1. There's no Thune in Nevada.
This is the year that the GOP could unseat the powerful Reid - if only they had the right challenger. Unfortunately, the Nevada Republican party is not ready to take on this opportunity. The top three elected Republicans - U.S. Senator John Ensign, Governor Jim Gibbons and Lt. Governor Brian Krolicki have been fighting off one ethics charge after another. Those once considered "top tier" Republicans are largely those defeated incumbents from the 2008 cycle, such as former State Senator and current Congressional candidate Dr. Joe Heck.

Reid has 21 opponents of all types, including the presumed front runner - Sue Lowden, a Nevada businesswoman known for cracking down on labor unions in a heavily unionized state, as well as for calling off the state convention in '08 as chair of the Republican Party when there was doubt that the delegates would vote for Sen. John McCain who placed third in the Nevada caucus behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. While Reid is vulnerable, Lowden has enough baggage to open an American Tourister outlet.

2. The money, honey.
Harry Reid has three major advantages with the fundraising. First, as the most powerful senator, he has a little clout. That translates to dollars. Second, he has secured two major Republican endorsements - political powerbroker and former Ambassador Sig Rogich as well as MGM Mirage CEO Jim Murren. Those are two people that Sue Lowden really needs to be on the phones for her campaign and she can't have them. Additionally, while Sue was courting the Tea Partiers in Searchlight, ol' Harry Reid was in Centennial Hills partying with a top leader of the National Rifle Association. While a potential endorsement from them for Reid won't necessarily translate into votes from the rank and file, it will not help Ms. Lowden.

3. Will things get worse? Sue Lowden has to hope that things continue to get worse for Nevada as any significant improvement between now and November will only hurt her chances. As important for winning her own primary, she needs to see who will be living in Carson City for the next four years. If Sandoval defeats Gibbons in the primary, many of his voters may be the same ones alienated by Sue Lowden's moves in the convention closing. On the other hand, havign to share a slate with Jim Gibbons with his popularity ratings and his $261 gift to teachers will really help mobilize organized labor in the cycle, another group hostile towards Sue Lowden.

Where does this leave the Majority Leader? He will probably have to hang on to this thankless job for at least another two years before there is a Republican majority.